How We Calculate the Flip Score
We use publicly available, official election results to estimate how competitive each U.S. House district is. The goal is transparency: you can see the sources, the math, and how each result is assembled.
Primary Data Sources
Flip Score Formula
We calculate a two‑party margin using the latest general election results in each district. The flip score is a 0–100 scale where higher numbers indicate more competitive districts.
Example: a 5‑point margin yields a flip score of 90. A 25‑point margin yields 50.
Senate Seats Up Next
Senate results are statewide, so we calculate competitiveness by state rather than district. We only show Senate seats that are up in the next election cycle (about 33–34 seats), using the most recent general election for that Senate class.
Why the Latest General Election
We use the most recent general election with valid two‑party totals so the score reflects current competitiveness. Special elections are excluded to avoid skew.
Notes on Accuracy
The flip score is a simplified measure meant for quick comparison. It does not account for redistricting changes, incumbency, fundraising, or local shifts. It is a guide, not a forecast.